Mexico expects an average price of $60 per barrel for its oil exports for 2022, and an average production of 1,9 million barrels per day; Reuters reported exclusively citing an anonymous source from Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) the state-owned oil company.
The forecast is part of the calculations that the Ministry of Finance is doing in the country to calculate the income for next year’s fiscal budget. Ministry has until September 8 to deliver the calculations to Congress; however, such initial forecast may be tweaked by lawmakers.
Speaking anonymously, the source told Reuters that the potential crude oil exports for 2022, are around the 1,1 million barrels per day. “Macroeconomic forecasts may vary slightly; but that’s what is being considered so far by the finance ministry.” The source said.
According to Pemex’ data, the forecast for $60 per barrel is significantly higher than the $42,1 per barrel, established on the current year’s fiscal budget. The increase is mainly attributable to the boost in oil prices, after the rollout of vaccines.
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Mexico ‘s Pemex struggling to keep up production
However, as we have reported previously, the new variant of the coronavirus, Delta, has weighed in oil prices; it has affected demand after rapid contagions in Asia; particularly in China, the world’s second largest oil consumer.
On the other hand, the Mexican government forecast for price is also part of an strategy by the Ministry of Finance for its oil hedge, an insurance program designed to safeguard oil revenue, which has cost between $1.0 billion and $1.2 billion annually in recent years; according to Reuters.
Moreover, as outlined above, Pemex has been struggling with keeping up production; the company reached an all-time high of 3.38 million bpd in 2004; since then, it has steadily declined. During the H1 of 2021 Pemex produced an average of 1,7 million bpd; slightly lower than the 1,9 million bpd expected for this year; and considerably lower than the 2 mbpd promised by the AMLO administration.
Finally, the exports of Pemex’s flagship Maya heavy crude and lighter Isthmus grade averaged 1.02 million bpd in the first seven months of 2021; according to figures from the company. Prices for Maya crude delivered in August on the U.S. Gulf Coast are around $64 per barrel.
